Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
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Side 8 af 32
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Lidt fra Tyskland: http://www.zdf.de/ZDFmediathek/beitrag/video/1634150/Dokumentation-Die-Griechenland-Luege#/beitrag/video/1634150/Dokumentation-Die-Griechenland-Luege
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
Join date : 30/10/08
Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Fantastisk godt link, Lars.
Burde oversættes til dansk så flere kunne få glæde af at se det. Her siges jo offentligt det, som vi har diskuteret i årevis: Krisen, også i Grækenland, er skabt af grådighed hos banker og enkeltpersoner, som også ender med at blive vindere. Gevinsterne "flygter" til udlandet, London, Paris, Schwiez, mens Regningen for festen ender på samfundets bund, hos de, som absolut intet fik ud af festen.
Burde oversættes til dansk så flere kunne få glæde af at se det. Her siges jo offentligt det, som vi har diskuteret i årevis: Krisen, også i Grækenland, er skabt af grådighed hos banker og enkeltpersoner, som også ender med at blive vindere. Gevinsterne "flygter" til udlandet, London, Paris, Schwiez, mens Regningen for festen ender på samfundets bund, hos de, som absolut intet fik ud af festen.
SortKaffe- Antal indlæg : 1105
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
SortKaffe skrev:Fantastisk godt link, Lars.
Burde oversættes til dansk så flere kunne få glæde af at se det. Her siges jo offentligt det, som vi har diskuteret i årevis: Krisen, også i Grækenland, er skabt af grådighed hos banker og enkeltpersoner, som også ender med at blive vindere. Gevinsterne "flygter" til udlandet, London, Paris, Schwiez, mens Regningen for festen ender på samfundets bund, hos de, som absolut intet fik ud af festen.
Her skal du nok hefte dig ved, at Tyskland har skruet bissen på overfor Schweiz - de købte nogle filer med oplysninger om tyske skatteborgere, der havde ret mange penge stående i Schweiz - og (jeg mener det var) 3 tyske skattefolk, der røg i spjældet i Schweiz - for spionage.
Mon ikke de indlånsbøger forbliver åbne - i hvert fald delvis. Jeg tror faktisk, at man i det tyske finansministerium har tænkt på disse skatteål. Jens Weidmann forekommer mig ikke at være udpræget åndeligt udfordret.
Thomas- Antal indlæg : 34594
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
http://www.rd.dk/PDF/Om%20os/Analyser/2012/Frivaerdimillionaerer_styrtdykker.pdf
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Lars_HH skrev:http://www.rd.dk/PDF/Om%20os/Analyser/2012/Frivaerdimillionaerer_styrtdykker.pdf
VRØVL masser af sul på bolig formuen
mvh thsv
klogeaage 35- Antal indlæg : 2556
Join date : 24/10/08
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Ja, det varer nok ikke længe for at vi ser en gennemsnitlig insolvens.
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Lars_HH skrev:Ja, det varer nok ikke længe for at vi ser en gennemsnitlig insolvens.
Nu foreligger 2011 tallene ikke endnu fra Realkreditrådet! Men det ser ud til at det samlede antal realkreditlån (dvs. incl. erhvervsudlån) er faldende (svagt): Vi har således stigende udlån, faldende ejendomsværdier og den risiko er så fordelt på færre.
Dernæst kan vi tælle et udlån fra Nationalbanken forbundet med realkredit lån på 41 mia. (DDB) og 15 mia. (BRF). Man kan simpelt hen ikke skaffe likviditet på anden måde. Det er så fornuftigt nok at hive det lort hjem, så de ikke bliver knust, når Schäuble slår i bordet.
Thomas- Antal indlæg : 34594
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Det er sgu noget svineri, at det igen skal gå ud over 1972+ generationerne: http://www.b.dk/nationalt/skattestigning-paa-vej-til-tusindvis-af-boligejere
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Det gør da ikke noget, hvis de får billige boliger - og det skal nok komme efterhånden som bankerne bliver afviklet.Lars_HH skrev:Det er sgu noget svineri, at det igen skal gå ud over 1972+ generationerne: http://www.b.dk/nationalt/skattestigning-paa-vej-til-tusindvis-af-boligejere
Thomas- Antal indlæg : 34594
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2012/05/20/the-anatomy-of-the-eurozone-bank-run/#axzz1vSKCiBSS Likviditeten søger nordpå
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Lars_HH skrev:http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2012/05/20/the-anatomy-of-the-eurozone-bank-run/#axzz1vSKCiBSS Likviditeten søger nordpå
Har kun selv læs FT overfladisk men Mish (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/05/full-fledged-european-bank-run-ecb.html) har følgende kritik:
We need to stop right there for a bit because the "classic account" Davies believes in is complete nonsense. The crisis then and now is a crisis of solvency.
Så vidt jeg forstår så er Target2 uballancen et resultat af centralbankernes indgreb og viser egentlig bare hvor store problemerne reelt er - og at problemet er solvens - ikke likviditet.
Synes egentlig også FT bloggen nævner dette:
... the run is being caused by concerns about exchange rate risk, not necessarily by the fear of bank failure as such. This makes it much more complicated to deal with, since it is very difficult to offer guarantees against future exchange rate losses to today’s depositors
Man kan vel ikke fortænke befolkningen i at beskytte sig mod centralbankerne (og tåbelige politikkere).
Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Storebror skrev:
Så vidt jeg forstår så er Target2 uballancen et resultat af centralbankernes indgreb og viser egentlig bare hvor store problemerne reelt er - og at problemet er solvens - ikke likviditet.
På almindeligt dansk:
Problemet er ikke ubegrundet mangel på tillid. Problemet er begrundet mangel på tillid. Gældsaberne kan og vil ikke betale.
/BF
Gæst- Gæst
Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
http://finanswatch.dk/Finansnyt/Realkredit/article4703060.ece
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
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Ja jeg tror der er
set noget ganske uhyggeligt med kreditforeningerne den sidste måned.Lars_HH skrev:http://finanswatch.dk/Finansnyt/Realkredit/article4703060.ece
Thomas- Antal indlæg : 34594
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Sidste nyt fra DØRS: http://www.dors.dk/sw9310.asp
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Lars_HH skrev:Sidste nyt fra DØRS: http://www.dors.dk/sw9310.asp
Ret uinteressant, fordi
1) Olieprisudviklingen kan meget hurtigt gå hen og blive meget negativ.
2) Forbruget forudsættes rette sig med reallønsnedgang.
3) Fjolserne ævler om en "ligevægt" på boligmarkedet.
4) Et decideret sammenbrud af bankerne tænker de ikke på.
Thomas- Antal indlæg : 34594
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Ja, jeg føler mig sgu lidt pisset på. Men på den anden side 68'er generationens huse bliver heller ikke meget værd: http://www.b.dk/kronikker/de-unge-haenger-paa-regningen
Sidst rettet af Lars_HH Tirs Jun 05, 2012 11:38 am, rettet 1 gang
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Tjoooo; men hvem skal betale, når de unge ikke kan?Lars_HH skrev:Ja, jeg føler mig sgu lidt pisset på. Men på den anden 68'er generationens huse bliver heller ikke meget værd: http://www.b.dk/kronikker/de-unge-haenger-paa-regningen
Thomas- Antal indlæg : 34594
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Men Thomas, det er lidt bittert at være 'højtlønnet' off. ansat akademiker og så se at ens pensionsopsparing på 17% om måneden bare af en OPP investeringskonto (læs penge ud af vinduet til beskæftigelsesprojekter i bygge og anlægssektoren) eller giver et markant negativ realrenteafkast, samt aflønning af selvhøjtidelige pampere i jakkesæt
P.S.
Ja, far er morgensur.
P.S.
Ja, far er morgensur.
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Lars_HH skrev:Men Thomas, det er lidt bittert at være 'højtlønnet' off. ansat akademiker og så se at ens pensionsopsparing på 17% om måneden bare af en OPP investeringskonto (læs penge ud af vinduet til beskæftigelsesprojekter i bygge og anlægssektoren) eller giver et markant negativ realrenteafkast, samt aflønning af selvhøjtidelige pampere i jakkesæt
P.S.
Ja, far er morgensur.
Nu er problemet ikke hvad man får udbetalt i pension; men hvad man får for de penge!
Thomas- Antal indlæg : 34594
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Fix Income Ineqaulity with $10 Million Loans for Everyone!
By Sheila Bair, Former FDIC Chairman
Are you concerned about growing income inequality in America? Are you resentful of all that wealth concentrated in the 1 percent? I’ve got the perfect solution, a modest proposal that involves just a small adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy. Best of all, it will mean that none of us have to work for a living anymore.
For several years now, the Fed has been making money available to the financial sector at near-zero interest rates. Big banks and hedge funds, among others, have taken this cheap money and invested it in securities with high yields. This type of profit-making, called the “carry trade,” has been enormously profitable for them.
So why not let everyone participate?
Under my plan, each American household could borrow $10 million from the Fed at zero interest. The more conservative among us can take that money and buy 10-year Treasury bonds. At the current 2 percent annual interest rate, we can pocket a nice $200,000 a year to live on. The more adventuresome can buy 10-year Greek debt at 21 percent, for an annual income of $2.1 million. Or if Greece is a little too risky for you, go with Portugal, at about 12 percent, or $1.2 million dollars a year. (No sense in getting greedy.)
Think of what we can do with all that money. We can pay off our underwater mortgages and replenish our retirement accounts without spending one day schlepping into the office. With a few quick keystrokes, we’ll be golden for the next 10 years.
Of course, we will have to persuade Congress to pass a law authorizing all this Fed lending, but that shouldn’t be hard. Congress is really good at spending money, so long as lawmakers don’t have to come up with a way to pay for it. Just look at the way the Democrats agreed to extend the Bush tax cuts if the Republicans agreed to cut Social Security taxes and extend unemployment benefits. Who says bipartisanship is dead?
And while that deal blew bigger holes in the deficit, my proposal won’t cost taxpayers anything because the Fed is just going to print the money. All we need is about $1,200 trillion, or $10 million for 120 million households. We will all cross our hearts and promise to pay the money back in full after 10 years so the Fed won’t lose any dough. It can hold our Portuguese debt as collateral just to make sure.
Because we will be making money in basically the same way as hedge fund managers, we should have to pay only 15 percent in taxes, just like they do. And since we will be earning money through investments, not work, we won’t have to pay Social Security taxes or Medicare premiums. That means no more money will go into these programs, but so what? No one will need them anymore, with all the cash we’ll be raking in thanks to our cheap loans from the Fed.
Come to think of it, by getting rid of work, we can eliminate a lot of government programs. For instance, who needs unemployment benefits and job retraining when everyone has joined the investor class? And forget the trade deficit. Heck, we want those foreign workers to keep providing us with goods and services.
We can stop worrying about education, too. Who needs to understand the value of pi or the history of civilization when all you have to do to make a living is order up a few trades? Let the kids stay home with us. They can play video games while we pop bonbons and watch the soaps and talk shows. The liberals will love this plan because it reduces income inequality; the conservatives will love it because it promotes family time.
I’m really excited! This is the best American financial innovation since liar loans and pick-a-payment mortgages. I can’t wait to get my super PAC started to help candidates who support this important cause. I think I will call my proposal the “Get Rid of Employment and Education Directive.”
Some may worry about inflation and long-term stability under my proposal. I say they lack faith in our country. So what if it cost 50 billion marks to mail a letter when the German central bank tried printing money to pay idle workers in 1923?
That couldn’t happen here. This is America. Why should hedge funds and big financial institutions get all the goodies?
Look out 1 percent, here we come.
outlook@washpost.com
Sheila Bair is a former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and a regular contributor to Fortune Magazine.
By Sheila Bair, Former FDIC Chairman
Are you concerned about growing income inequality in America? Are you resentful of all that wealth concentrated in the 1 percent? I’ve got the perfect solution, a modest proposal that involves just a small adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy. Best of all, it will mean that none of us have to work for a living anymore.
For several years now, the Fed has been making money available to the financial sector at near-zero interest rates. Big banks and hedge funds, among others, have taken this cheap money and invested it in securities with high yields. This type of profit-making, called the “carry trade,” has been enormously profitable for them.
So why not let everyone participate?
Under my plan, each American household could borrow $10 million from the Fed at zero interest. The more conservative among us can take that money and buy 10-year Treasury bonds. At the current 2 percent annual interest rate, we can pocket a nice $200,000 a year to live on. The more adventuresome can buy 10-year Greek debt at 21 percent, for an annual income of $2.1 million. Or if Greece is a little too risky for you, go with Portugal, at about 12 percent, or $1.2 million dollars a year. (No sense in getting greedy.)
Think of what we can do with all that money. We can pay off our underwater mortgages and replenish our retirement accounts without spending one day schlepping into the office. With a few quick keystrokes, we’ll be golden for the next 10 years.
Of course, we will have to persuade Congress to pass a law authorizing all this Fed lending, but that shouldn’t be hard. Congress is really good at spending money, so long as lawmakers don’t have to come up with a way to pay for it. Just look at the way the Democrats agreed to extend the Bush tax cuts if the Republicans agreed to cut Social Security taxes and extend unemployment benefits. Who says bipartisanship is dead?
And while that deal blew bigger holes in the deficit, my proposal won’t cost taxpayers anything because the Fed is just going to print the money. All we need is about $1,200 trillion, or $10 million for 120 million households. We will all cross our hearts and promise to pay the money back in full after 10 years so the Fed won’t lose any dough. It can hold our Portuguese debt as collateral just to make sure.
Because we will be making money in basically the same way as hedge fund managers, we should have to pay only 15 percent in taxes, just like they do. And since we will be earning money through investments, not work, we won’t have to pay Social Security taxes or Medicare premiums. That means no more money will go into these programs, but so what? No one will need them anymore, with all the cash we’ll be raking in thanks to our cheap loans from the Fed.
Come to think of it, by getting rid of work, we can eliminate a lot of government programs. For instance, who needs unemployment benefits and job retraining when everyone has joined the investor class? And forget the trade deficit. Heck, we want those foreign workers to keep providing us with goods and services.
We can stop worrying about education, too. Who needs to understand the value of pi or the history of civilization when all you have to do to make a living is order up a few trades? Let the kids stay home with us. They can play video games while we pop bonbons and watch the soaps and talk shows. The liberals will love this plan because it reduces income inequality; the conservatives will love it because it promotes family time.
I’m really excited! This is the best American financial innovation since liar loans and pick-a-payment mortgages. I can’t wait to get my super PAC started to help candidates who support this important cause. I think I will call my proposal the “Get Rid of Employment and Education Directive.”
Some may worry about inflation and long-term stability under my proposal. I say they lack faith in our country. So what if it cost 50 billion marks to mail a letter when the German central bank tried printing money to pay idle workers in 1923?
That couldn’t happen here. This is America. Why should hedge funds and big financial institutions get all the goodies?
Look out 1 percent, here we come.
outlook@washpost.com
Sheila Bair is a former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and a regular contributor to Fortune Magazine.
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Vi er vist stadig i nedtrend i landbruget: http://www.agrocura.dk/NR/rdonlyres/91DE5581-128C-4CBD-88D2-1E83B8C482C7/0/ArtikelAgrocuraMaj2012Jordpris.pdf
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
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Moodys forklaring: http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Danish-financial-institutions-outlooks-stable-for-most-banks--PR_246419#
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
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Det vil sætte sig i priserne på jorden/boligerne:
http://www.business.dk/bolig/kommuner-faar-lov-at-haeve-boligskatter
http://danskeanalyse.danskebank.dk/abo/grundskyldflash100612/$file/grundskyld_flash_100612.pdf
@Cirb: Tobins Q er ophævet, der er ingen bund denne gang. Tænk på hvor skattebegunstiget boligejerne var i 1992/1993 i forhold til i dag
http://www.business.dk/bolig/kommuner-faar-lov-at-haeve-boligskatter
http://danskeanalyse.danskebank.dk/abo/grundskyldflash100612/$file/grundskyld_flash_100612.pdf
@Cirb: Tobins Q er ophævet, der er ingen bund denne gang. Tænk på hvor skattebegunstiget boligejerne var i 1992/1993 i forhold til i dag
Lars_HH- Antal indlæg : 954
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Sv: Doom/LHH's økonomiske prognoser og kommentarer
Som Greenspan sagde, at han egentlig havde troet at bankerne - i egen interesse - havde været mere omhyggelige med, hvem de lånte penge ud til.Plyds skrev:Og det var bankerne selv der pressede og pressede for at få disse lån indført. Et klasseksempel på hvad grådighed kan føre til, ikke mindst når man tror at man kan gå på vandet.
Det er det glade vandvid!
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» Danske Banks prognoser
» Ben Hodges
» Så taler banksvindlerne rente prognoser!
» Den evindelige optimist: Dr. Doom!
» Artikel af Nouriel Roubini (Dr. Doom)
» Ben Hodges
» Så taler banksvindlerne rente prognoser!
» Den evindelige optimist: Dr. Doom!
» Artikel af Nouriel Roubini (Dr. Doom)
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