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Indiens oliekøb i Kina.

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Indiens oliekøb i Kina. Empty Indiens oliekøb i Kina.

Indlæg af Thomas Tors Jan 04, 2024 10:05 pm

Er ved at falde helt væk.

Russerne vil ikke akceptere betaling i andet end USD. Det er så også lukket, fordi alle smuthullerne og deres banker er klar over, at det er spekulation mod USD - og det er bogstavelig talt livsfarligt.

Det vi også ser er, at der er begyndt at dukke 155 mm granater op i Ukraine, granater produceret i Indien. Det er ikke russerne, fordi de granater passer ikke i russiske kanoner.
Det kan så være, at russerne begynder at købe ammunition i Indien mod betaling i INR tjent på oliesalg - så dukker næste problem op med det samme: Hvad vil de granater koste omregnet til olie. Vi er altså tilbage i en tuskhandel.
Thomas
Thomas

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Indiens oliekøb i Kina. Empty Som skrevet andet steds:

Indlæg af Thomas Tors Jan 04, 2024 11:02 pm

Thomas skrev:Er ved at falde helt væk.

Russerne vil ikke akceptere betaling i andet end USD. Det er så også lukket, fordi alle smuthullerne og deres banker er klar over, at det er spekulation mod USD - og det er bogstavelig talt livsfarligt.

Det vi også ser er, at der er begyndt at dukke 155 mm granater op i Ukraine, granater produceret i Indien. Det er ikke russerne, fordi de granater passer ikke i russiske kanoner.
Det kan så være, at russerne begynder at købe ammunition i Indien mod betaling i INR tjent på oliesalg - så dukker næste problem op med det samme: Hvad vil de granater koste omregnet til olie. Vi er altså tilbage i en tuskhandel.

The problem is that export to Europe from India of refined oil products will have to document compliance with oil price cap, as price caps on refined products are also in place.

1) An interesting fact in this connection is that 155 mm grenades made in India have started to appear on the battlefield in Ukraine. This is not the russians, as 155 mm shells do not fit the Russian guns. India might start delivering shells to Russia according to Russian specifications - which then raises the interesting proposition: What is the price of a 153 mm shell measured in oil (or oil products). This means that RUB, CNY and INR has been reduced to mere monopoly-money or bus tokens to a busline that has stopped transport. Is there one thing the US disapproves of then it is: Speculating against the USD.

2) Secondly the Norwegean parliament has given up its long standing policy of not exporting weapons to warzones. Which possibly means that Norwegean ships and insurance companies might have gotten the hint, that it is unhealthy to do business not compliant with the EU sanctions.
Actually Norway is making money hand over fist on the oil- and electricity prices as it is. Here the fact, that Norway shares a boarder with Russia might also be a factor - as it could be a conduit of exports of terrorists.

3) Norway has joined the club of F-16 exporting countries now consisting of Denmark, Holland and Belgium.
I had noticed that the Danish PM Mette Frederiksen visited Indian some months ago. At the time I wondered what the real purpose of the travel to India was. I still don't know, but the field of guesses has narrowed. Denmark is in a lot of ways the key to these questions, as Denmark is an energy exporter as well as an importer. Norway is not a member of the EU and Sweden is not a member of Nato - yet. And Danish and Norwegean languages are so close, that no interpreter is needed. In fact: Norwegean is generally regarded as misspelled Danish. Swedish is also understood as it is in Finland. Neither Danes nor Norwegeans speak Swedish, as Sweden is generally regarded as a repository for the criminally insane and radioactive waste.

4) There was a terrorist attack on a Mærsk ship in the Red Sea - which due to a US Sea Hawk - ended very badly. It has happened before with same unfortunate result for the perpetrators - they even made a film on that story.
Thomas
Thomas

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Indiens oliekøb i Kina. Empty Som skrevet andet steds:

Indlæg af Thomas Tors Jan 04, 2024 11:17 pm

Thomas skrev:Er ved at falde helt væk.

Russerne vil ikke akceptere betaling i andet end USD. Det er så også lukket, fordi alle smuthullerne og deres banker er klar over, at det er spekulation mod USD - og det er bogstavelig talt livsfarligt.

Det vi også ser er, at der er begyndt at dukke 155 mm granater op i Ukraine, granater produceret i Indien. Det er ikke russerne, fordi de granater passer ikke i russiske kanoner.
Det kan så være, at russerne begynder at købe ammunition i Indien mod betaling i INR tjent på oliesalg - så dukker næste problem op med det samme: Hvad vil de granater koste omregnet til olie. Vi er altså tilbage i en tuskhandel.

The problem is that export to Europe from India of refined oil products will have to document compliance with oil price cap, as price caps on refined products are also in place.

1) An interesting fact in this connection is that 155 mm grenades made in India have started to appear on the battlefield in Ukraine. This is not the russians, as 155 mm shells do not fit the Russian guns. India might start delivering shells to Russia according to Russian specifications - which then raises the interesting proposition: What is the price of a 153 mm shell measured in oil (or oil products). This means that RUB, CNY and INR has been reduced to mere monopoly-money or bus tokens to a busline that has stopped transport. Is there one thing the US disapproves of then it is: Speculating against the USD.

2) Secondly the Norwegean parliament has given up its long standing policy of not exporting weapons to warzones. Which possibly means that Norwegean ships and insurance companies might have gotten the hint, that it is unhealthy to do business not compliant with the EU sanctions.
Actually Norway is making money hand over fist on the oil- and electricity prices as it is. Here the fact, that Norway shares a boarder with Russia might also be a factor - as it could be a conduit of exports of terrorists.

3) Norway has joined the club of F-16 exporting countries now consisting of Denmark, Holland and Belgium.
I had noticed that the Danish PM Mette Frederiksen visited Indian some months ago. At the time I wondered what the real purpose of the travel to India was. I still don't know, but the field of guesses has narrowed. Denmark is in a lot of ways the key to these questions, as Denmark is an energy exporter as well as an importer. Norway is not a member of the EU and Sweden is not a member of Nato - yet. And Danish and Norwegean languages are so close, that no interpreter is needed. In fact: Norwegean is generally regarded as misspelled Danish. Swedish is also understood as it is in Finland. Neither Danes nor Norwegeans speak Swedish, as Sweden is generally regarded as a repository for the criminally insane and radioactive waste.

4) There was a terrorist attack on a Mærsk ship in the Red Sea - which due to a US Sea Hawk - ended very badly. It has happened before with same unfortunate result for the perpetrators - they even made a film on that story.
Thomas
Thomas

Antal indlæg : 34074
Join date : 27/10/08

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Indiens oliekøb i Kina. Empty Indiens oliekøb i Rusland

Indlæg af Thomas Lør Mar 16, 2024 10:11 pm

Meget lidt overraskende.

Selvfølgelig vil Indien ikke betale! Den forlangte pris er ikke i overensstemmelse med finansiel stabilitet i Indien. Indien vil såmænd nok gerne betale i USD; men så bliver olieprisen derefter. Tro endelig ikke, at inderne ikke kender de kneb fra landsbyens markedsplads.
Inderne skal bare lige tjene de USD/EUR først på reeksport. Så kan man overveje at betale russerne - rigtige penge altså.

Kommer prisen ned under EU's niveau, så kan man godt tage leverance af råolie fra Rusland; men det skal være sådan at de indiske raffinaderier kan få deres arbejde solidt betalt ved reeksport - til konkurrencedygtige priser. Jeg tror, det var det Mette Frederiksen har fortalt Modi, der besøgte hende.

Problemet er, at Putler er så stupid og ondartet som en skolelærer.

Dernæst skal man tage i betragtning, at Ukraine nu smadrer de russiske raffinaderier, så Rusland ikke har raffinerede produkter til eksport. Hvem havde en anelse om, at Ukraine kunne og ville angribe de russiske raffinaderier. Skal vi sige: Mette Frederiksen - og hun kan holde sin kæft.
Russerne er i den situation, at de ikke har nogen steder at sende råolien hen - raffinaderierne kan ikke modtage interessante mængder: Enten bliver raffinaderiet ramt eller også  deres benzinlagre (og jo benzin brænder ganske udmærket).

Fidusen er, at Mette Frederiksen kan få en sanktionspakke igennem EU på minutter, så Indien ikke kan tjene penge - med mindre prisen er konkurrencedygtig. Man vil jo godt købe olie og olieprodukter fra Rusland - bare ikke til de priser, der bliver forlangt.

Der er det ved det, at Saudi skal åbne for oliehanen.

Fidusen er, at tilsyneladende går Mette Frederiksen imod danske interesser, som netto eksportør af olie. Det er bare ikke tilfældet, for det man ønsker at eksportere er strøm: Dels fra vindmøllerne, dels fra norske vandkraftværker.
Thomas
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