Kerch broen ramt - igen?

af Thomas Man Jul 17, 2023 2:19 pm

Afhængig af Youtube kilde:
Så skulle én af bropillerne være væltet.

Vi må vente lidt for at få nærmere at vide.

af Thomas Man Maj 13, 2024 3:43 am

Som skrevet andet steds:

There was another vital information on ANKA daily news (I think it was): The explosive charge that made a nasty dent in the Kerch bridge was 10 tons set of by remote control. I think the information is correct, because the implications of that information makes sense.

1) Can You tell me where there will be more than 10 tons of explosives at any one time on the Kerch bridge? Exactly: When a russian ammunition train is crossing. What would happen if all of that explosives decided (probably provoked) to go BOOM? Yup, railway connection broken.
2) If You have ever driven across a bridge, You'll have noticed that it goes up hill to the top of the longest span. That is because you use the arc to compress the road-/railway on the pre-tensed underside (NOT the topside) or the damned thing will collapse. The romans were great at building arched bridges and the laws of nature have not changed since.
3) There is one thing freight trains HATE: That is inclines! According to Wikipedia:
"High-speed railways commonly allow 2.5% to 4% because the trains must be strong and have many wheels with power to reach very high speeds. For freight trains, gradients should be as gentle as possible, preferably below 1.5%."
Then a freight train will need quite a lot of momentum to get over the top of the bridge and more locomotives to PUSH or the couplings will go TWANG at the very top. That means there is a limitation to how long and heavy a freight train can be. Of course you can use a lot of shunting - and a lot of trains - to pass that bridge. Which in case of ammunition means a lot of BOOM material constantly passing the bridge.
4) That means that if You have to transport a lot of ammunition - You SAIL/FLOAT it. That is why the ukrainians targets the landing ships. The ukrainians know a fair bit about railroads.
That is why the Great Belt bridge in Denmark has a tunnel under the main span for rail. And why they are building a tunnel UNDER Femarn Belt.
5) That is probably why the Russians are shit-scared of using the Kerch bridge for ammunition. That is why the Ukrainians keep attacking the bridge with cheap drones - never mind them being shot down. As railroads run on a time table, You know with great precision when a train will be where at any given time. If 10 tons of explosives can wreck that much havoc - what can several hundred tons not do?

Det er også derfor, det er så vigtigt med artilleri: AT RAMME!
Hele den russiske logistiske strategi er forkert! Nemlig PUSH strategien. Man opbygger fremskudte depoter og læsser så meget ammunition på køretøjer som overhovedet muligt (En russiak kampvogn fjumser rundt med 60 granater, hvor en Nato-kampvogn klarer sig med det halve - og har det bagerst i tårnet). Det er at placere ammunitionen, hvor fjenden kan komme til at ramme den.
Det modsatte er en PULL strategien, hvor man har begrænset beredskabsammunition og hvis der er brug for mere, så rekvirerer man det gennem daglig melding. Kritisk lav ammunition er tilfældet i 24 timer - indtil da, klarer man sig med omfordeling (og udvisning af økonomi - altså begrænse skydning, bare for at skyde).

Derfor er det realistisk at forsyne fra luften og lade forsyningskøretøjer køre tilbage efter krudtet (til f.eks. en midlertidig landingsbane, der kan tage en Hercules). Den ammunition bringes så frem til et forsyningspunkt, hvor pjecerne kører tilbage for genladning. Det giver færre led i forsyningskæden og så lidt ammunition som muligt, hvor fjenden kan komme til den.

PULL strategien virker fint. Ukraine får ikke krudtet før de beder om det/rekvirerer det og på lidt længere sigt, så er ammunitionen end ikke lavet endnu - ja, fabrikken er end ikke bygget.

Kerch broen ramt - igen?

Kerch broen ramt - igen?

Ammunition og Kerch broen