Australske aviser er

undertiden er godt supplemet. Det er set lidt fra den anden ende af kikkerten.

Det er så en New York Times artikel:

The combination of sanctions and plummeting oil prices is catching up with Russia's economy, wobbly in the best of times because of its heavy reliance on commodity exports.

The Russian economy has a history of making hairpin turns from growth to sharp decline, imposing sudden and wide-ranging limitations on the country's foreign and domestic politics.

In another worrying sign, Russians have been bulking up on consumer items as the ruble depreciates, converting savings into durable goods lest their savings become worthless. Appliance stores in Moscow have had runs on refrigerators, washing machines and televisions. It is a pattern seen before previous ruble crashes, indicating evaporating faith in the currency.

"I expect inflation to go to double digits early next year," said Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS Financial Group.

And the central bank and two sovereign wealth funds hold billions, giving the country a decent cushion. Still, economists argue that the headline numbers exaggerate somewhat the amount available to prop up the ruble or bail out companies, as the money is already committed to long-term investments in Russia.

Der er tydelige tegn på, at der er ikke mere valutareserve at slås med: Det bliver spændende i den kommende uge.

Olieprisfaldet kan få renten til at stige.

But the accumulation of US Treasuries by net oil-exporting countries since the trough of the oil price in late-2008 had been fairly small in comparison to the accumulation by the two largest net oil-importing countries after the US itself, namely China and Japan, Mr Higgins said.

Because of this, there had been "little detrimental impact on the demand for US government bonds."

While the fall in oil price is expected to lower inflation in the near-term - which is likely to keep a lid on bond yields - "it will also boost growth significantly" and this will add to the prospects for long-term inflation.

The US Federal Reserve will need to tighten monetary policy to combat this, and as a result, bond yields will rise.

"Our long-held view has been that the Fed will tighten monetary policy sooner and more aggressively than most expect as a tightening labour market - the unemployment rate has already fallen close to its natural level - begins to put upward pressure on wage and core inflation.

Det er lige den, jeg har min stærke tvivl om! Jeg tror det vil være en stramning af finanspolitikken som følge af dels mindre subsidier til landbruget, dels en højere beskatning af landbrugsindkomster.

Nu er amerikansk landbrug forholdsvis velkonsolideret, så det er nok ikke de store investeringer, der kommer der.

Jeg tror faktisk at balancen over til fødevarerpriserne er en af dem Yellen holder skarpt øje med. Fødevarepriserne vil stige i USA; men ikke noget nævneværdigt, fordi der vil i alt væsentligt være tale om lavtlønsjob og tilbagegang i subsidier. Det vil så give baggrund for skattelettelser - specielt i bunden.

Alt det vil jo ikke hjælpe på bankernes situation. Dem, der bliver hjulpet i dette er lavtlønnede og landbrug, som ikke har nogen gæld af nationaløkonomisk betydning.

Det mere sandsynlige scenarie - efter min mening er: En indkomstoverførsel som følge af Obamacare - ikke løn. En forbrugsforøgelse hos lavt lønnede. Men den hurtigst virkende vil være at investeringerne i amerikanske statsobligationer vender tilbage til der, hvor de er kommet fra, når nu deres valuta er devaluret - til dels drastisk.

Det her bliver ikke reguleret via renten; men via valutaen. Hvordan kineserne vil reagere på dette er uvist; men formentlig vil man holde helt op med at bruge RMB.