Rusland i "Rose-krig"?

af Thomas Lør Okt 28, 2023 5:15 pm

Som skrevet andet steds:

Video skrev:Well, such units as the Sibirian Batallion is precisely, what Russia fears. This is because these units will form the core of insurrections among the minorities in Russia. After the Russian communist revolution Russia decended into a civil war with the "Reds" fighting the "Whites".
Putin is not important as a person - in fact he is probably an advantage in the fight - the simple reason is: He is just as disconnected from reality as the Zar was. Will these movemets in themselves be able to topple the FSB-government of Russia? Hardly, but they will ensure that the clique in Moscow and Sct. Petersburg will have problems after the war, that will hamper the reconstruction of Russia.

The impounded fonds of Putin and his clique is according to Ursula von der Leyen to be used for war reparations of Ukraine. It will not be enough, but a start: The money is there. Her I am not counting the toys of the oligarks (such as yachts): They are worthless as nobody in their right mind can pay for the upkeep and have little use for the bling.

We are approaching a situation that reminds me - most of all -- of the "Hundred Year War" and the following civil war: "The War of the Roses":

"The Hundred Year War" reached its highest point at the battle at Agincourt where the armoured French Knights lost to English archers. That was under Henry V. All was lost in France under Henry VI - and the civil-war followed - generally and armed conflict between the pretenders to the Throne of England.
Let us just say: We have seen the pattern before - over and over again.

We could also quote the WW2, where Hitler definately bit off more than he could chew.

The difference is that Russia faces a demographic disaster: There simply will not be enough Russians to control the Empire.

Nu er udgangspunktet for video'en enheder som den Sibiriske Bataljon i den Ukrainske hær; men da Rusland aldrig er kommet ud af middelalderen, så gentager de mønstre fra tidligere.

Jeg kunne bare ikke stå for paralellen mellem Røde og Hvide roser og Røde og Hvide i Rusland efter revolutionen.

Men at tro, at det hele ender efter Ukraine har smidt russerne ud? Det forekommer mig et nummer for naivt.
Hvordan det præcist kommer til at spille sig ud er pr. definition umuligt at sige: Men, at Rusland har sået KAOS - med vilje - er klart; men om Rusland kan komme UD af kaos er straks en anden sag - en HELT anden sag.

Det, der er sagen er, at en økonomi, der er baseret på et råvare-monopol, som den russiske (med deltagelse i karteller) er skrøbelige, fordi alle andre vil have en fordel i at undgå dette monopol - specielt med noget så almindeligt som olie. Verdensmarkedet for olie vil skrumpe, når Kina er brudt sammen. Kinas stråååålende fremtid - tja, den kommer ikke.