Den evindelige optimist: Dr. Doom!

Nouriel Roubini

Der, hvor vi divergerer er, at "the Fragile Five" vil gennemgå alvorlige interne omfordelinger fra en industrisektor til en landbrugssektor. Der kommer næppe nogen højkonjunktur på landbrugsvarer - dertil er den kinesiske mulighed for at anvende valuta alt for begrænset. Dernæst er antallet af beskæftigede i landbruget sandsynligvis ikke til at få op igen: Man vil i stedet rationalisere og lægge brak.

Over time, optimism about emerging markets is probably correct. Many have sound macroeconomic, financial, and policy fundamentals. Moreover, some of the medium-term fundamentals for most emerging markets, including the fragile ones, remain strong: urbanisation, industrialisation, catch-up growth from low per capita income, a demographic dividend, the emergence of a more stable middle class, the rise of a consumer society, and the opportunities for faster output gains once structural reforms are implemented. So it is not fair to lump all emerging markets into one basket; differentiation is needed.

Jeg tvivler.
Der, hvor vi vil se en del bedring vil være i små lande som New Zealand og Uruguay - (ligger UDE ved havet - Paraguay ligger håbløst i midten af Sydamerika).

But the short-run policy tradeoffs that many of these countries face – damned if they tighten monetary and fiscal policy fast enough, and damned if they do not – remain ugly. The external risks and internal macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities that they face will continue to cloud their immediate outlook. The next year or two will be a bumpy ride for many emerging markets, before more stable and market-oriented governments implement sounder policies.

Jeg tror ikke på, at de vil indføre de nødvendige reformer - vi kan se, hvor svært det er i Grækenland, der på gode dage ligefrem har mindet om et land.