Flæsk jun 13

Kinas svinelager
06.06.2013

CNBC skrev:And it is, in fact, massive: Hogs are culturally and economically important in China, and Chinese consumers devour more than half the pork produced in the world, according to data from Northstar Commodity Investment.

Det væsentlige er at Kina spiser mere end ½ af verdens svinekød.

Forbruget skrev:That consumption is growing as Chinese families gain more expendable income and spend it on meat products that were once out of reach. Chinese now eat about 70 million tons of meat annually, more than double the total Americans eat.

Det støtter jo min pointe, at Kina ikke kan brødføde sig selv - fordi en gris æder sin egen vægt 3-4 gange i korn - inden den bliver til koteletter. Dermed øges kornforbruget i Kina.
25 mio danske svin á 90 kg slagtet årligt = ca. 2500 mio kg = 2½ mio tons. (det forekommer mig at tallene ikke helt stemmer og gør Danmark for stor i den sammenhæng)

When hogs get too expensive in China, the reserve releases animals onto the market, trying to hold down prices for consumers. When hogs get too cheap, the reserve buys up pigs, trying to keep farmers profitable.

Only about 37 percent of live hogs in China came from backyard farms last year, compared with about 74 percent in 2001, according to research from Rabobank International.

For now, at least, it's also about grabbing U.S. pork: Even though 95 percent of the hogs eaten in China are home-grown, 11 percent of all the pork produced in the United States in the first four months of 2013 wound up getting shipped to China (including Hong Kong) as well, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation

According to Rabobank, the reserve usually buys up pigs when the price of a kilo of pork relative to the price of a kilo of corn falls below 6 to 1. The government sells when the ratio hits 7 or 8 to 1.

The most recent ratio, according to May 29 data from China's Ministry of Agriculture, is 5.53 to 1—below the unofficial break-even point for farmers.

The precise size of China's pork reserve is a closely held secret, but what is known is that there are two types of hog on reserve: the kind that's alive, and the kind that's frozen. Some company-owned farms in China are designated as state reserve hog farms, but even those farms operate under a normal market mechanism.

"Many Chinese industry analysts think that the reserve's ability to significantly control prices is waning," Pareles said.

Problemerne er:

1) De sulter deres landbrug for at holde fødevarepriserne nede. Det er vanskeligt med stigende kornpriser.

2) Jeg tror ikke de lagre i forhold til forbruget er specielt store. Så længe grisene lever æder de jo.

3) Det forklarer hvorfor PlingPlong købte 40.000 tons dansk slagteriaffald.

4) Underbetalingerne af landbruget vil betyde manglende leverancer.

Læg mærke til hvor undervurderet svinekød er ifht andre former for kød.

Jeg tror simpelthen ikke at Kina kan holde prisen på flæsk nede længere - deres egenproduktion vil falde eller noget meget ubehageligt kommer til at ske.

Det hænger ikke sammen med prisniveauet for majs!

Tilsyneladende er vi også her i en sammenbrudssituation.

Forudset og forudsagt.